ACC Football – UNC vs TCU Preview – Mon Sept 1st 2025

The 2025 UNC football season starts on Labor Day when TCU visits Monday night for a primetime, nationally televised matchup under the lights at Kenan Stadium. It’s the first of a two-game series between the Tar Heels and the Horned Frogs, who will face off again in August 2026 in Dublin, Ireland as part of the 2026 Aer Lingus College Football Classic.

TCU finished 9-4 overall and 6-3 mark in the Big 12 Conference in 2024.  The Horned Frogs are three years removed from their historic 2022 season, that saw them advance to the national title game.

Head coach: Sonny Dykes. Dykes is in his fourth season leading the Horned Frogs. Dykes’ prior two stops was the head coach at Cal from 2013 through 2016 and then at SMU from 2017 through 2021.

What’s the history? UNC and TCU have met three previous times, with the Tar Heels winning all three games. The two teams squared off in a home-and-home series in the 90’s with Carolina winning 27-17 in Kenan Stadium in 1994 and 31-10 in Fort Worth in 1997. Prior to those two games, the only other meeting came in 1940, when head coach Raymond “Bear” Wolf’s Tar Heels defeated the Horned Frogs 21-14 in Chapel Hill.

QB: TCU quarterback Josh Hoover enters the 2025 season on the heels of a highly productive sophomore campaign. Hoover ranked among the nation’s top 10 quarterbacks in pass attempts (471), completions (313) and yards (3,949, a program record) and received an honorable mention All-Big 12 nod.  TCU’s passing offense also ranked in the nation’s top 10. Hoover’s 61 completions of at least 20 yards ranks No. 1 for returning players across the entire FBS, and he is the only returning quarterback to average at least 300 yards per game (303.8) and have a passer rating of at least 150 (151.1) last season.

Weakness: TCU ranked 112th out of 133 FBS teams with 113.9 rushing yards per game. Not helping matters is the departure of two key running backs to the transfer portal in the offseason, including potential starter Cam Cook (nine touchdowns in 2024).

New Faces Nearly Everywhere

UNC is coached by former New Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick in his first season in Chapel Hill.

While Texas Tech got the headlines for the transfer portal acquisitions, the Tar Heels were under the radar.  As of now, 13 of their 22 starters are expected to be from the portal. That includes quarterback Gio Lopez, a South Alabama transfer, who finished the 2024 season with 3,022 total yards and 25 touchdowns.  They lost Omarion Hampton to the draft, and he was their top rusher and pass-catcher last season. Their top two receivers from 2024 are also gone. 

The strength of the Tar Heels’ defense is expected to be their secondary, including cornerback Thaddeus Dixon, who followed defensive coordinator and Belichick’s son Steve from Washington. According to PFF, he was one of the Big Ten’s top cornerbacks last season and allowed a catch on only 47 percent of his targets.

The interesting battle between the two teams will be in the rushing attack. Whichever team can establish the line of scrimmage should find its task of winning the game easier.

Prediction: TCU 27 UNC 24