Gameday Preview: North Carolina vs San Diego State – Tues March 18th 2025

Dayton, Ohio: The North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13) kickoff their NCAA tournament run tonight against San Diego State (21-9)… kind of. The Heels were the last team in the tournament with some help from UAB losing to Memphis in the American Athletic Conference Finals. The Tar Heels are in the NCAA’s First Four as an 11 seed with a trip to the big tournament and a game against #6 Ole Miss (22-11) from the SEC waiting for them on Friday in Milwaukee. This is the third time the Tar Heels have made the NCAA Tournament in head coach Hubert Davis’ 4 year term.

How we got here:

North Carolina (22-13). 1-12 against Quad 1 teams with their biggest win against UCLA. The Heels did go 20-1 in quad 1 games. The Tar Heels finished 5th in the ACC with a 13-7 record overall. They beat Notre Dame 76-56 and Wake Forest 68-59 in the ACC tournament and lost to Duke 74-71 in the semifinals as their comeback fell short.

San Diego State (21-9). 3-9 against Quad 1 teams with their biggest win against #1 seed Houston 73-70. The Aztecs finished 5th in the Mountain West Conference and were bounced in the first game in the Mountain West Tournament to a Boise State team who finished 4th in the league but did not make the Big Dance. 

Key Statistic: The Tar Heels have scored 700 more points than the Aztecs this season. Yet, the Aztecs have the #14 defense in the country limiting opposing teams to 63 points a game. The Tar Heels are ranked 265th giving up 75 points a game. 

Keys of the game:

UNC

• Can their fast pace offensive scheme speed up the Aztecs and cause their defense to struggle? Look for the Heels to take off running.
• Play mad. The Heels have been disrespected in the media since selection and have plenty of bulletin board material. It is time to prove the media wrong and show that they belong in the tournament with a resounding win.
•  Step up on defense. The Heels have been unable to stop anyone at times this season. Play 40 full minutes of defense and let the offense take you into the round of 64

SDSU

• Can the Aztecs defense control RJ and make another Tar Heel step up? RJ is the senior leader on his last ride looking to keep the dream alive. The Aztecs need to limit his scoring
• Slow the pace. The Tar Heels will be eager to prove the naysayers wrong and want to establish their type of game early. If the Aztecs put the breaks on the Heels and make this a half-court game, they can come out on top.
• Control the boards. The Heels love second chance opportunities and Ven-Allen Lubin has emerged as a legitimate scorer with a big game against Duke in the ACC tournament. Limit their second chance points and paint scores, make the Heels a jump shooting team.

The Heels have the ability to put a few narrative to bed this week. First, there have been a few folks in the media claiming the Mountain West is a better conference than the ACC. A win against San Diego State would help end that. Second, a chance to take down an SEC team can help the narrative that the SEC is a weak tournament conference after their strong regular season. Lastly, if the Heels can make the round of 32, they can prove that they belong in the field.