ACC Football Preview: North Carolina vs Cal

UNC v Cal Preview 

Anytime a college football head coach is releasing a statement saying he’s not planning on quitting after just five games into his tenure, things probably aren’t going well. The Tar Heels lost to TCU, UCF, and Clemson by a combined score of 120-33, and weren’t remotely close in any of the three games.

Both teams enter Friday’s matchup searching for a spark. Cal is coming off a 45–21 loss to Duke on Oct. 4 and will look to regain momentum at home, while UNC hopes to bounce back from a 38–10 blowout loss to Clemson and end a two-game slide. The Tar Heels are 2-3, while the Golden Bears are 3–3 against the spread in 2025.

Why North Carolina Will Win

After all the bad press, the horrible vibes, and bad performances, the Tar Heels had two weeks off to take a deep breath. The best possible thing might be a cross-country flight to the San Francisco area to play a game that should end at around 2:30 AM on the East Coast. .

Cal has a slew of good pieces, but it has a big turnover problem with three in the loss to SDSU and four against Duke.

This is still Bill Belichick, the man is an all-time genius at coaching a defense, and he has had two weeks to prepare. The Tar Heels came up with five turnovers in the two wins, two in the three losses. 

Why Cal Will Win

North Carolina is bad on third down  and even worse at coming up with first downs.
They are dead last in the nation in generating first downs. This isn’t about the Tar Heels, though. It’s about Cal and its ability to finally start playing up to the level it showed in the win over Minnesota a few weeks ago. 

Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is a great young talent, but he has to limit the mistakes to pull this off.
Cal will pound away with the running game to take the heat off its QB and combined with a lack of a Tar Heel pass rush, should keep the Golden Bears going.

North Carolina’s run defense has been terrific, but it’s getting killed in passing games. Cal QB will play it safe and very late or early in the AM in some places, Cal will be in the ACC hunt.

Prediction

Cal 30, North Carolina 20

The Tar Heels will need to handle the travel, time change, and a disciplined Golden Bears defense that thrives on forcing mistakes. Cal’s physicality up front could slow UNC’s run game early,  The Tar Heels are averaging 11 points through three games against Power 4 opponents and allowing an average of 40 points in those losses. A week off the field could inspire UNC to prove its naysayers wrong, but the Golden Bears are the better bet as a more consistent group through seven weeks and they have homefield advantage. Bill Belichick’s squad hasn’t shown much consistency on either side of the ball.