July 25, 2023
By Brett Wiseman
Just one week remains until the 2023 MLB Trade Deadline, and many questions still remain.
Will the biggest name in baseball be dealt? Will teams thought to be contenders sell off pending free agents? Will the market and prices be dictated more by the desperation of buyers or the needs of sellers?
While those questions abound, general managers league wide are gearing up to try and anticipate the answers. The deadline comes at 6ET on August 1, three hours later than in previous years, which could make for even more drama on deadline day than ever before.
THE SHOHEI SITUATION
Angels superstar Shohei Ohtani made his feelings about the consistent mediocrity of his club known, and stated his desire either for a commitment to winning from the Halos or a new home. Since spring training commenced in March, rumors have swirled abound as to whether or not the Angels brass would be willing to deal their generational great, who is set to become a free agent at season’s end.
The thought is that teams would be more than hesitant to deal for Ohtani considering the massive return he would generate. His talent as both a pitcher and a hitter has never been seen on a baseball field in the form of one player, and thus the return a potential trade for him would generate would be unlike any seen before. Multiple top prospects and MLB-ready players would likely be required.
Not just the return itself would be a deterrent, but also the fact that there is no guarantee a team that would deal for Ohtani would be able to sign him beyond October. The pending free agent’s status and starpower would lead many to believe he would test the market after the season no matter what happens on August 1st.
However, the Angels are listening to offers. The asking price, of course, is astronomical, but the list of contending teams who would be primed to make the move is small. The standings in all divisions as well as the wild card races are tight with just a few teams having pulled away.
The AL West can be marked out completely, as can the LA Dodgers, as the Angels would not trade Ohtani within the division, nor would they send him to their crosstown NL rivals.
That leaves only one team who has the prospect capital, the means, and the motive to go after Ohtani: the Atlanta Braves. It’s unclear to speculate on an exact return, but the Braves have the prospect capital and MLB ready talent to at least entice the Angels with an offer.
SAN DIEGO SELLOFF?
The San Diego Padres are one of the teams thought to be contending at this point who sit more than seven games out of a playoff spot. With the expanded postseason and crowded wild card standings in the NL, the Friars are among two other teams who may have to reverse course from their intentions in April and look forward to 2024 by selling off some valuable pieces to contending teams at the deadline.
If the Padres decide to sell, their most sought-after player would definitely be LHP Blake Snell. The Southpaw is set to become a free agent at season’s end, and would fit nicely as a rental into the starting rotation of a contending team. Snell is having a solid 2023 season thus far, and would bring postseason pitching experience which he earned with the Tampa Bay Rays during their run to the World Series in 2020.
The trade market for starting pitching is bare at the moment, especially with Cleveland’s Shane Bieber likely done for the season due to a shoulder issue. That means someone of Snell’s stature, talent and pedigree could garner a much bigger return due to the lack of starters available. A classic case of supply and demand could lead a team like the Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves or Houston Astros to make an aggressive run at Snell. His former team in Tampa could even throw their hat in the ring.
Of the teams that need starting pitching, it’s Snell’s former team and their counterparts atop the AL East who make the most sense. The division leading Orioles only have one starter in their rotation over the age of 30 (Kyle Gibson), so some experience at the top of the rotation would likely be a big help for Oriole Magic to continue down the stretch.
The Rays are down a left handed starter, Jeffery Springs, for the season due to Tommy John Surgery, and could create a lethal lefty pairing of Snell and ace Shane McLanahan for a run at the AL East crown.
COULD METS MOVE VET?
Second on the list of teams thought to contend but not, the New York Mets, who signed veteran right hander Justin Verlander to a fairly large contract in the winter. Verlander’s veteran presence and wealth of postseason experience could be huge to contenders down the stretch. The Braves can be marked out, as the Mets of all teams would definitely not be willing to trade within their own division. Verlander’s former team, the Astros could inquire, as could Tampa. The Orioles, though, would make the most sense again in this case given their inexperience in the rotation. The question is: will the brass in Queens realize they’re out of it, and try and get a hefty return for the former Cy Young winner, or do they hang onto him while clinging onto hope of a miracle run to a wild card?
REDBIRD RETOOL
The Cardinals found a way to climb out of last place for the first time since late May, but haven’t shown any signs of being capable of another magical late-season run. President of Baseball Operations John Mozelik basically waived the white flag on the season last week during a meeting with the media outside the St. Louis clubhouse, saying the Cards were “definitley going to trade people” and prioritize “pitching, pitching and more pitching” in return.
A mindset such as this at the deadline isn’t normal at all for Mozelik and the Cardinals. These are uncharted waters for the entire organization as well as its devoted fanbase. Despite their pourous record, they’re still on pace to draw 3 million fans in attendance. St. Louis has only had three losing seasons (1997, 1999, 2007) since the current ownership group took over in 1996. Needless to say, this isn’t familiar territory.
Short of a full-blown rebuild, which is not and never will be a direction the Cardinals will choose, a retooling of sorts could begin in earnest on August 1. The Cardinals have overflow at a couple of positions, along with a number of pending free agents as well as budding young stars in AAA who need a spot on the big league roster.
Pending free agent starting pitchers Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty are as good as gone as things stand now. Both make up two of the best starters on a thin market at that position, and are garnering a lot of demand. Mozelik and his front office staff are sure to spend the next week sifting through offers from contenders before deciding on where to send their prized pitchers, hoping that the desired MLB-ready pitching is coming in return.
The Cardinals plan to build around a core of infielders Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Nolan Gorman along with outfielders Jordan Walker and Lars Nootbaar. That leaves a few position players as “odd men out” in the grand scheme of things.
A few contending teams are looking for a right-handed power bat, and St. Louis shortstop Paul DeJong fits that bill. The Tampa Bay Rays most fit for DeJong out of necessity, as their lineup is top-heavy with left-handed hitters. For the Cardinals, DeJong likely wouldn’t garner a huge return, but would open up a spot at shortstop for budding young star Masyn Winn, who has been hitting the cover off of the ball all season long at AAA Memphis.
Dylan Carlson is the odd man out in the outfield construction for St. Louis. Mozelik made a commitment to Tyler O’Neill that he would be one of the three starting outfielders going forward in his comments.
Meanwhile the Seattle Mariners are desperate for help in their outfield as they try and make a run in a crowded AL Wild Card race. The M’s have their eyes on Carlson, and the Cards being desperate for controllable pitching have eyed Seattle’s Logan Gilbert as a top return target. The deal, which would likely involve others, makes too much sense at its core for both sides.
Teams looking for bullpen help will likely also inquire about pending free agent relievers Chris Stratton and Jordan Hicks. Stratton would fit well with many contenders for a relatively low asking price. Hicks, however, is one of the hardest throwers in all of baseball and has assumed the Cardinals closer role with Ryan Helsey on the shelf for likely the remainder of the season. With that, Hicks will likely be the only marketable name the Redbirds hang on to.
SOUTHSIDE SELLOFF
The Chicago White Sox are at a point in their franchise where they must make a choice. Stick with a core who has underperformed, or use the trade deadline to reshape it for the future. The decision to do the latter would behoove the Southsiders both in the short and long terms.
Dylan Cease and Lucas Giolito would be two of the top starting pitchers on the market, and give the ChiSox quite the haul from a contender in return.
Shortstop Tim Anderson could fill a contender’s need for a righty depth bat with some pop.
A week to go, and a lot of questions left to answer. Buckle up, it’s going to be fun.
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